Peak Apple
We have reached peak Apple, folks. And that's an opportunity for a new device company.
Apple just announced their iPhone 15 line of devices. Seemingly for years now, the phones have launched with small incremental improvements. Each time I’ve been in line to upgrade, hoping the new version had lots more to offer. The first few days are fun (and unboxing is super fun!), but then you realize there really isn’t much to the new phone that you didn’t have before.
So what went wrong?
Service deteriorated
One of the original promises of Apple phones was the quality in-person Genius bar service. It had smart, kind, attentive people who were the “easy button” if anything went wrong with your phone experience. But then Apple, the operations mastermind company, operationalized the Genius bar to optimize the costs and profit margin. As a result, the Genius Bar became difficult to reach, and when you did finally get an appointment or someone on the phone, the staff seemed exhausted, annoyed, and often far from geniuses.
Hardware as a commodity
Apple used to feel like a special walled garden that gave you the best stuff if only you were willing to pay the high price tag for admission. But in the last few years we’ve found out that the outside of the garden is pretty nice too, and the walls weren’t to keep the noise out, it was to keep us in.
There is an overall parity between iOS and Andriod. While differences between the platforms and devices certainly exist, it is more about preference than it is about one being better and the other worse. Here is a recent video by MKTB that lays out the differences. The real choice is between customization of Andriod vs. convenience of Apple.
Siri sucks
If you've used it, you know it started terrible and stayed terrible. This was a massive lost opportunity. Siri could have become the primary interface point, but big companies are terrible at innovation.
Big companies can't innovate
Vinod Khosla has said this repeatedly, and he said it again at the All-In Summit 2023. In the last 40 years, he hasn't seen one instance of real innovation coming from a big company. The closest he has seen is Bank of America combining Debit and Credit card features on a single physical card. He views all societal innovation coming from entrepreneurs. Apple is clearly not an entrepreneurial company anymore. As Steve Jobs said, Tim Cook is great, but he isn’t a product person.
Apple fans will buy older versions
Why bother with the newest release when it's basically the same as the last two, at least in every way that actually matters for your daily use? People like me, who have been eager to upgrade each release, will be more than content keeping their current phone longer, and when we upgrade, it won't matter if we buy a phone that is a year old release. I’m quite happy with my iPhone 14 Pro Max, and I don’t see any need to buy the iPhone 15 Pro Max. I’m more likely to buy an Andriod foldable phone.
Peak Apple
That leads me to my conclusion. Peak Apple. It's done. The only real path forward is to acquire directionally new technology and use Apple’s operations strength to scale it.
Room for a new phone company
Magic wand in my hand, I want a new phone/tablet company built for using Notion, X, great voice assistant, Spotify, and an amazing camera, and impeccable security. Big companies don't innovate, an entrepreneur needs to do it.